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The Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home Prices

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The Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home PricesThe Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home Prices

If you’re wondering what’s going on with home prices lately, you’re definitely not the only one. With so much information out there, it can be hard to figure out your next move.

As a buyer, you might be worried about paying more than you should. And if you’re thinking of selling, you might be concerned about not getting the price you’re aiming for. 

So, what’s The Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home Prices? Here’s a quick breakdown to help clear things up and show you what’s really happening with prices—whether you’re thinking about buying or selling. 

Home Price Growth Is Slowing, but Prices Aren’t Falling Nationally

Throughout the country, home price appreciation is moderating. What that means is, prices are still going up, but they’re not rising as quickly as they were in recent years. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to make the shift from 2023 to 2024 clear:

No Caption ReceivedBut rest assured, this doesn’t mean home prices are falling. In fact, all the bars in this graph show price growth. So, while you might hear talk of prices cooling, what that really means is they’re not climbing as fast as they were when they skyrocketed just a few years ago.

What’s Next for Home Prices? It’s All About Supply and Demand 

You might be curious where prices will go from here. The answer depends on supply and demand, and it’s going to vary by local market. And remember, a local market can be your specific neighborhood or condo building!! What is happening in the building across the street or the subdivision across the road, may be entirely different from where you are!

Nationally, the number of homes for sale is going up, but there still aren’t enough of them to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s keeping upward pressure on prices – even though recent inventory growth has caused that home price appreciation to slow. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, said:

“. . . today’s low but quickly improving for-sale inventory has ushered in more market balance than would otherwise be expected . . . This should help home prices maintain a slower pace of growth.” 

And here’s one other thing you may not have considered that could play a role in where prices go from here. Since experts say mortgage rates should continue to decline, it’s likely more buyers will re-enter the market in the months ahead. If demand picks back up, that could make prices climb a bit further.

Why You Should Work with a Local Real Estate Agent 

While national trends give a big-picture view, real estate is always local – especially when it comes to prices. What’s happening in your neighborhood might be different from the national average based on what supply and demand look like in your market. That’s why it’s crucial to get local insights from a knowledgeable real estate agent. (WINK WINK!)

 As your go-to source for everything related to home prices, a local agent can provide the most current data and trends specific to your area. (WINK WINK….again!)

So, if you’re planning to sell, I can help you price your house accurately. And when you’re ready to buy, I can help you find the right home that fits your budget and your needs.

Bottom Line

Home prices are still rising, just not as quickly as before. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what your house is worth, let’s connect so you have the personalized guidance you need.

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

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What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.

What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.

And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.

Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?

Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.

Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market. But I also want you to be prepared….besides you, there are going to be lots of other buyers that have been doing just the same thing…sitting on the fence. And when they jump off, along with you, it just might be another complex and competitive real estate market!  

Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect you with one of our TEAM lenders so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there…along with real estate agent…..ME!

Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You

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Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You Think They Are

If you’ve seen the news lately about home sellers slashing prices, it’s a great example of how headlines do more to terrify than clarify. Home prices aren’t declining and here’s what’s really happening with prices.

The bottom line is home prices are higher than they were a year ago at this time, and they’re expected to keep rising, just at a slower pace.

But a recent article from Redfin notes,

“Price Drops Hit Highest Level in 18 Months As High Rates Dampen Buyer Demand.”

And that might make you think prices are declining.

Now, while it’s true the latest report from Realtor.com also shows 16.6% of homes on the market had price reductions in May, which is up from 12.7% last May, that doesn’t mean overall home prices are falling.

The key is knowing the difference between the asking price and the sold price.

Understanding Asking Price vs. Sold Price

In essence, the asking price, also known as a listing price, is the amount a seller hopes to get for their home when they list it. In reality, sellers can’t just put any price tag on their house and expect it to sell for top dollar. Today’s buyers are savvy customers, and when they aren’t willing to pay a premium for a home because their budgets are strained by higher mortgage rates, sellers need to adjust. And that’s what’s happening right now.

Based on market factors and what offers that seller receives, that asking price can change. If a seller isn’t getting much foot traffic, you may see them revise the price and make an adjustment to reignite interest in the home – and sometimes that’s because they’ve overpriced it from the start. That’s where price reductions come in, and when you see “price drops” in a headline, it sounds like declining home prices.

Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder of Altos Research, says:

“Not only is the share of homes with price cuts elevated compared to one year ago, but more price cuts are happening each week than last year.”

On the other hand, the final sold price is the amount a buyer actually pays when the transaction is complete.

Here’s the most important thing to note: Actual sold prices are still rising, and they’re expected to continue to do so at least over the next 5 years.

What Does This Mean for Home Prices?

So, while there’s been an increase in price reductions recently, this doesn’t mean overall home values are declining. Instead, it’s a sign that demand is moderating. And, as a result, sellers are adjusting their expectations to align with today’s market reality.

Even with more price reductions, home values are still growing on an annual basis, as they do nearly every year in the housing market. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices went up 6.6% over the last year (see below):No Caption Received

This map shows how prices rose just about everywhere in the country, indicating the market is not in decline.

So, while seller price reductions are often a leading indicator that prices may moderate in the months ahead, which experts have been saying for a while is expected to happen, they aren’t necessarily reason for alarm. The same article from Redfin also states:

“. . .those metrics suggest sale-price growth could soften in the coming months as persistently high mortgage rates turn off homebuyers. For now, the median-home sale price is up 4.3% year over year to another record high. . .”

And with inventory as tight as it is today, price moderation is much more likely in upcoming months than price declines.

Why This Is Good News for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, more realistic asking prices mean a better chance of securing a home at a fair price. It also means you can enter the market with more confidence, knowing prices are stabilizing rather than continuing to skyrocket.

For sellers, understanding the need to adjust your asking price can lead to faster sales and fewer price negotiations. Setting a realistic price from the start can attract more serious buyers and lead to smoother transactions.

Bottom Line

While the uptick in price reductions might seem troubling, it’s not a cause for concern. It reflects a market adjusting to new conditions. Home prices are continuing to grow, just at a more moderate pace. 

Why a Foreclosure Wave Isn’t on the Horizon

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Why a Foreclosure Wave Isn’t on the Horizon

Even though data shows inflation is cooling, a lot of people are still feeling the pinch on their wallets. And those high costs on everything from gas to groceries are fueling unnecessary concerns that more people are going to have trouble making their mortgage payments. But, does that mean there’s a big wave of foreclosures coming?

Here’s a look at why the data and Why a Foreclosure Wave Isn’t on the Horizon.

One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even when they couldn’t show they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being as strict when looking at applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.

But since then, lending standards have gotten a whole lot tighter. Lenders became much more diligent when assessing applicants for home loans. And that means we’re seeing more qualified buyers who have less of a risk of defaulting on their loans.

That’s why data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments (known in the industry as delinquencies) has been declining for quite some time. Take a look at the graph below:  No Caption Received

What this means is that, not only are borrowers more qualified, but they’re also finding ways to navigate through their challenges, exploring their repayment options, or maybe even using the record amount of equity they have to sell and avoid foreclosure entirely.

The Answer Is: There’s No Sign of a Wave Coming

Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise significantly. But, since so many buyers are making their payments today and homeowners have so much equity built up, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.

Take it from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk – an expert on the housing market who, after closely following the data and market leading up to the crash, was able to see the foreclosure crisis coming in 2008. McBride says:

“We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about a potential foreclosure crisis, know there’s nothing in the data to suggest that’ll happen. Buyers are more qualified now, and that’s one reason why they’re not falling seriously behind on their mortgage payments. 

More Than a House: The Emotional Benefits of Homeownership

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More Than a House: The Emotional Benefits of Homeownership

With all the headlines and talk about housing affordability, it can be tempting to get lost in the financial side of buying a home. That’s only natural as you think about the dollars and cents of it all.

And while you ultimately need to be able to afford a home you buy, don’t lose sight of why homeownership was so important to you in the first place. That’s because buying a home is so much more than just a financial transaction. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“The benefits of purchasing and owning your place of residence are both financial and emotional – pride in homeownership and the feeling of security are huge intangible benefits.”

Here’s a look at just a few of The Emotional benefits of homeownership, those more emotional or lifestyle perks, to help anchor you to why homeownership is one of your goals.

A Sense of Satisfaction

Owning a home is often associated with better mental health and well-being. That’s probably because buying a home is a big milestone. And the sense of satisfaction and pride that comes with achieving that goal just feels good. A recent article from the Mortgage Reports says:

“By and large, homeownership brings more satisfaction than renting. . . Surveyees scored the overall happiness level of homeowners at 88% compared to 67% for renters.”

More Stability for Your Family

Another thing that may make homeowners feel more satisfied is that they’re finally able to put down roots. Think about it. If you’re used to moving each time your lease renews and your rent climbs, staying put for a while would be nice not just for you, but for any loved ones that live with you.

A home can provide more predictability and the chance to make long-term friends. That should reduce everyone’s stress too. As NAR explains:

“Families also benefit from homeownership, with studies proving that parents are able to spend less time in a stressed state, therefore spending more time with their children. The ability for parents to feel stable has a huge impact on children’s behavioral issues, educational success, and future economic success.”

Emotional Benefits of HomeownershipA Stronger Feeling of Community

And if you’re also looking for a sense of belonging for yourself, homeownership can help with that too. As FinHabits says:

“Homeowners tend to be more involved in their local communities, leading to a stronger sense of belonging . . .”

It makes sense. Your home connects you to your neighborhood and, by extension, your broader community. That’s because owning a home gives you a stake in that community’s future. So, becoming more involved and wanting to do what you can to help improve the area while making long-term relationships with neighbors is only natural.

The Ability To Make the Space Your Own

And don’t forget, your home is a place that’s all yours. Unless you’ve got specific homeowner’s association requirements, you’re free to customize it however you see fit.

So, if renting has been cramping your style, it’s time to express yourself and jump on the latest trends (if you want to). Whether that’s small home improvements or full-on renovations, your house can be exactly what you want and need it to be. And as your tastes and lifestyle change, so can your home. Picture coming home each day to a place that feels like you. That’s a feeling like no other. 

Bottom Line

If you want to enjoy a sense of accomplishment and pride in where you’re living, let’s have a conversation to go over what you need to do now to make this future happen for you.

The Perks of Buying over Renting

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The Perks of Buying over Renting

Thinking about buying a home? While today’s mortgage rates might seem a bit intimidating, here are two solid reasons why, if you’re ready and able, it could still be a smart move to get your own place.

1. Home Values Typically Go Up Over Time

There’s been some confusion over the past year or so about which way home prices are headed. Make no mistake, nationally they’re still going up. In fact, over the long-term, home prices almost always go up (see graph below):

No Caption Received

Using data from the Federal Reserve (the Fed), you can see the overall trend is home prices have climbed steadily for the past 60 years. There was an exception during the 2008 housing crash when prices didn’t follow the normal pattern, but generally, home values kept rising.

This is a big reason why buying a home can be better than renting. As prices go up and you pay down your mortgage, you build equity. Over time, this growing equity can really increase your net worth. The Urban Institute says:

“Homeownership is critical for wealth building and financial stability.”

2. Rent Keeps Rising in the Long Run

Here’s another reason you may want to think about buying a home instead of renting – rent just keeps going up over the years. Sure, it might be cheaper to rent right now in some areas, but every time you renew your lease or sign a new one, you’re likely to feel the squeeze of your rent getting higher. According to data from iProperty Management, rent has been going up pretty consistently for the last 60 years, too (see graph below):

No Caption Received

So how do you escape the cycle of rising rents? Buying a home with a fixed-rate mortgage helps you stabilize your housing costs and say goodbye to those annoying rent increases. That kind of stability is a big deal.

Your housing payments are like an investment, and you’ve got a decision to make. Do you want to invest in yourself or keep paying your landlord?

When you own your home, you’re investing in your own future. And even when renting is cheaper, that money you pay every month is gone for good.

As Dr. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“If a homebuyer is financially stable, able to manage monthly mortgage costs and can handle the associated household maintenance expenses, then it makes sense to purchase a home.”

Bottom Line

If you’re tired of your rent going up and want to explore the many benefits of homeownership, let’s talk to explore your options. You can also reach out to one of our Team Lenders to get a pre-approval and know what your purchasing power is as well as if there are any credit issues you may not be aware of. 

Thom Abbott

Associate Broker, REALTOR(R)
905 Juniper Street, NE Suite 110
Atlanta, Georgia 30309
770.713.1505 Direct
404.876.4901 Office

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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